The New Bull Market – Are We There Yet?
Can we consider the next bull market here or this is just a short-term trend? Let’s analyse the big-boy BTC and ETH.
It has been 32 months after the ATH for BTC and now the currency has shown key characteristics for entering a bull market. Let’s first look at the technicals.
The monthly candle is printing a new high above $12,000 (Aug 17). The resistance at $10,700 got finally broken while making the price higher and staying above it. This is crucial and will validate whether we are really out of the woods. This upward move happened because we really manage to keep the 50 MA Monthly (in blue) as an unbreakable fortress and kept the upward movement (green line). Moreover, we see now a classical candle formation (in yellow) indicating that we will reach more upward towards $14,000.
Thus, the risk comes in that area – we will wait for a correction and we expect a down wave, and then up again.
- The MACD and Stoch RSI are entering the bullish territory. However, we expect them to be entering overbought zones sometime Sep-Oct.
- BTC remains bullish but still needs to break $14,000. then go down to $10,800 and only after that to aim for ATH. That will validate the bullish scenario.
- The Weekly chart shows (Aug 17) room for upside but the most important 200 Weekly MA remains as a solid base.
Let’s look at the ALTS.
ALTS have always served as a good indicator that the market is stabilizing. People buy ALTS because they trust in BTC price (however controversial it sounds 😊 ). Meanwhile, DeFi craze is pumping more capital in the Ethereum network. So, let’s take ETH as a good benchmark.
ETH/USD pair rose 80%+ last month giving us very interesting events:
- ETH finally managed to get out of the $200 – $260 zone
- Clearly the 200 Weekly MA was broken and we remain above it long enough
The $500 is the area where we saw lots of cluttered trades in the past. This again will be invalidated if we see a clear break upwards in September. The weekly MACD favours bulls and RSI is relatively good.
The BTC Dominance goes down which fuels a bit more the ALTS. This is also an indicator that the market turns actually positive.
A big fundamental event for BTC was undoubtedly the halving which slashed the BTC reward for miners. Thus, we don’t know how much coins are going to flood the market but if we take the stock-to-flow logic we expect higher price due to lower supply.
On the other hand, this reminds the previews cycle that emerged in 2016.
Liquid Network also came into play and Bitcoin Options picking up for institutional investors creating a good environment for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
For ETH, things are a bit more complicated since the long-waited ETH 2.0 has to be here this year…but who knows? Currently, the DeFi projects sucked everything out of ETH due to high fees on each contract. So again, the scalability is still an open question – and not resolved!
Of course, we have still had the massive printing of cash, which will eventually add more instability in the FIAT world creating more opportunities in Crypto.
Meanwhile, in the bull market, your assets become stronger… You have to know that heights are climbed, but the downturn will come. Before that, you can always cash-out to stable EURO and be happy with your earnings.